Cost-cutting innovations are underway in the power industry and renewable electricity could lead the world's energy supply over fossil fuels by the middle of the century. A new study finds that these advances, combined with a global carbon price, could boost emissions reductions to meet Paris climate targets while reducing the need for controversial negative emissions.

 

 

"Today, 80 per cent of all energy needed to heat industry, transport or buildings is met primarily through the direct burning of fossil fuels, with only 20 per cent through electricity. Our research finds that by 2050, this relationship could reverse significantly, making easily decarbonisable electricity the mainstay of global energy supply, with fossil fuels cheap and readily available and electricity a precious and expensive source of energy for a long time. Renewable energy generation - particularly solar PV - is becoming cheaper at an alarming rate, a rate that has so far been underestimated by most climate models. In the last decade alone, the price of solar power has fallen by 80%, and further reductions are expected in the future. This development has the potential to fundamentally change the energy system. Our computer simulations show that, together with global carbon pricing, green power will be the cheapest form of energy and meet three-quarters of demand by 2050." said Gunnar Luderer, author of the new study and researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

The reasons for this lie primarily in groundbreaking technological advances in solar and wind power generation, but also in the end use of electricity. The cost per kilowatt-hour of solar or wind energy is falling dramatically, and battery technology in cars is advancing by leaps and bounds. Heat pumps consume less heat per unit than any type of boiler and are becoming increasingly competitive not only in buildings but also in industrial applications. Silvia Madeddu, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute and co-author of the study, explains: "You can get more end users on electricity and in this case actually reduce energy consumption compared to current levels. "

 

 

Take steel production as an example:Electrification of molten recycled steel, known as secondary steel, reduces the amount of energy required for the whole process and reduces the carbon intensity per tonne of steel produced. All in all, we find that more than half of the energy needs of industry could be electrified by 2050. However, the researchers point out that some bottlenecks to electrification remain. In the race to decarbonise, the slowest pace is in long-haul aviation, shipping and chemical feedstocks, i.e. fossil fuels used as feedstock in chemical production.

 

 

Limiting reliance on negative emissions

 

 

The scale of technological progress offers huge opportunities for countries and investors to leapfrog. However, not every technology has been a success to date. In this study, we limit our reliance on technologies designed to extract carbon from the atmosphere simply because they have proven more difficult to scale than previously anticipated: the cost of carbon capture and storage has not fallen as dramatically as solar energy. In turn, biomass and food production have created crucial competition in terms of land use. Interestingly, we find that accelerated electrification of energy demand can make up for the shortfall in biomass and carbon capture and storage, still keeping the 1.5 degree Celsius target within reach, while reducing land requirements for energy crops by two-thirds.

The age of electricity will come in both directions. But only comprehensive regulation of fossil fuels across sectors and in all regions of the world - and most importantly some form of carbon pricing - will ensure that 1.5 degrees Celsius is reached in due course. Indeed, simulations show that the share of electricity will double over the century even if no climate policy is put in place at all. However, in order to achieve the Paris Agreement's goal of keeping global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, decisive global political coordination is essential: putting a price on carbon, eliminating taxes on electricity, expanding grid infrastructure and redesigning electricity markets to reward storage and flexible demand. Hydrogen will be a key link here, as it provides the flexibility to convert renewable electricity into green fuels for sectors that cannot be directly electrified. When these factors are combined, the prospects for a renewable energy-based green energy future look really exciting.

 

 

The study was published in the journal Nature Energy.

 

 

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